Comparative Postbellum Economic Growth

 

                                                                                     

Hypothesis: Economic expansion in the Pacific Northwest outpaced the former Confederate state of Texas during our nation’s postbellum period, 1865-1900. This question is perhaps best answered via a comparative, statistical analysis encompassing gross domestic product, population changes, and per capita income throughout the selected regions. Historical Statistics of the United States and Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800 are the chosen data sources for this analysis.

 

Comparative Postbellum Economic Growth: The Pacific Northwest and Texas

Historical Statistics of the United States and Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800 are two data sets readily available to assist the historian’s examination of postbellum economic data; the latter compilation is essential for international comparisons. Both compendiums are accessible online from numerous websites, including the independent National Bureau of Economic Research and Cambridge University Press. According to economist Carmel Chiswick, “Historical Statistics of the United States is the premier source of quantitative evidence on American economic, social, political, demographic, and institutional history.”[1] Nevertheless, historians using this resource can encounter certain pitfalls. For instance, according to the bicentennial edition’s introduction: 

The contents... were obtained from a large number of sources. All data from either censuses and surveys or based on estimates or administrative records are subject to error arising from a number of sources: Sampling variability (for statistics based on samples), reporting errors in the data for individual units, incomplete coverage, nonresponse, imputation, and processing error.[2]

 

Meanwhile, economic historian Robert E. Gallman commented, writing in Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800, posited that ”International comparisons are difficult to make today and the difficulties are multiplied when we attempt comparisons for a date well over a hundred years in the past.”[3]

Despite any inherent shortcomings in the data, historical statistics provide a valuable baseline for measuring national and regional economic expansion. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or national product, is a standard measurement. The data set defines gross domestic product as “a comprehensive measure of the Nation’s total annual production of commodities and services.”[4] Meanwhile, The Bureau of Economic Analysis considers GDP by State an all-inclusive estimate of an individual state’s economy.[5]

Looking at a macro or national level, one measurement of economic growth is the increase in the Gross National Product; for instance, using a five-year average expressed in 1929 dollars, durables rose from 460 million dollars (1869-1873) to 1.75 billion (1897-1901).[6] This represents an improvement of approximately 26 percent. Another area of comparison is population growth by state. The population of Oregon, for example, is estimated at 91 thousand in 1870; however, by the twentieth century, the number of inhabitants increased to approximately 414 thousand.[7] During the same period, Texas residents increased from about 819 thousand to just over 3 million in 1900.[8] Statistics are also available to estimate the number of immigrants moving into the different states. Estimated immigration into Oregon, based upon a ten-year average and using the survival-rate calculation method, increased roughly 51 percent between 1870 and 1900. Meanwhile, Texas experienced a decline in migration. The state’s ten-year average ending in 1880 is an estimated 308 thousand. This number decreased to an estimated annual average of almost 148 thousand by 1900. The percentages for Washington state are similar; for example, the yearly immigration rate increased by approximately 64 percent.[9]

The selected data sets present Insufficient data to support the hypothesis that economic growth in the Pacific Northwest, especially the state of Oregon, outperformed the economic expansion experienced in Texas. The primary reason is that Historical Statistics of the United States primarily presents economic data from the twentieth century, 1929 being a standard cutoff date. In addition, the analysis published by the National Bureau of Economic Research is mainly concerned with national data and international comparisons.

            

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[1] Carmel Ullman Chiswick, “Origin of Historical Statistics of the United States.” in Historical Statistics of the United States: Millennial Edition Online, edited by Susan B. Carter, et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), 5-819.  https://hsus.cambridge.org/HSUSWeb/toc/showFrontEssay.do?id=Ap.ESS.03.

[2] U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition. Washington, DC: GPO, 1975. Accessed August 25, 2022. https://archive.org/details/historicalstatis00unit_1.

[3] Gallman, Robert E. “Gross National Product in the United States, 1834-1909.” In Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800, ed. Dorothy S. Brady, 4. Cambridge: NBER, 1966.

[4] Bureau of Economic Analysis. “Gross Domestic Product.” Last modified on April 26, 2022. https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-gdp.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Historical Statistics of the United States, Bicentennial Edition, 232.

[7] Ibid., 33. The number of postbellum Oregon residents increased by about 78 percent.

[8] Ibid., 35. The number of postbellum Texas residents increased by approximately 73 percent.

[9] Ibid., 93.